Bitcoin sits at $71,089 as of June 1, 2026 — 43.0% below the October 2025 ATH of $124,720, down sharply on the day (~-3.6% intraday) and now trading slightly BELOW the power-law floor band ($73,745). Quantile position has dropped to the 6.0th percentile (-0.90σ below the power-law centerline) — the deepest value reading of this entire bear.

HMM regime: Bear at ~100% confidence. Week 35 since the October 2025 top. Survival comparison: 20% of past bears were shorter — this decline has outlasted most historical bears. No regime-change signal.

Caveat: HMM is a lagging top-confirmation model (typically flags BULL→BEAR 5-10 weeks after actual cycle tops) and structurally blind to cycle bottoms (0% hit rate at known bottoms in the alignment eval). Use it for regime context, not bottom timing.

26-week return forecast: XGBoost reads 60.2% P(+6M return), L1 logistic at 75.7%. Both above the 50% long threshold, and L1 firmed as price fell — consistent with deep-value mean reversion: the models read a sub-floor price as a better 6-month entry, not a reason to turn bearish. Walk-forward stats: XGB Sharpe 0.96 / hit 72.5%, L1 Sharpe 0.96 / hit ~78%.

Cycle detection — binary heads: L1 cycle (union feature set) reads P(top) 32.0% / P(bot) 55.4%. XGB cycle reads top 3.9% / bot 14.2%. Ensemble: top 32.0%, bot 55.4% — the bottom side firmed with today's drop but still below the 70% bar.

Cycle detection — regression head (squarederror loss, 260w target cap). Top reads 12.4% (predicted ~173 weeks to next top — far off). Bot reads 83.8% (predicted ~25 weeks to next bottom — strong reading, holding above the 70% bar). Honest-LOEO validation: TOP 2/2 events flagged at peak 0.92 with Spearman +0.88, BOT 20/20 in-window hits at peak 0.90. Limitation: the bot head's training data ends at the last known bottom (2022-11-21), so 2024-2025+ predictions are extrapolations and the bot indicator drifts up over time even during bull-cycle features — best read as confirmation when binary heads also fire, not as standalone proximity signal.

Bottom line: BTC has slipped below its power-law floor for the first time this cycle (6th percentile, -43% drawdown), bear regime confirmed at week 35, yet both 6-month return models stay constructive (XGB 60% / L1 76%) and the regression bot signal holds at 84% pointing to a bottom roughly two quarters out. Binary cycle heads firmed but remain sub-70 (ensemble bot 55%); Kelly 2.7% long. Watching window — a sub-floor price with rising L1 is the classic deep-value setup, but confirmation needs the binary bot heads crossing toward 70% before the "BOTTOM SIGNAL" pill flips.