Cameco Corporation (NYSE: CCJ, TSX: CCO) is the world's second-largest publicly-traded uranium producer and the largest Western-aligned supplier, headquartered in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. The company operates two segments: Uranium (exploration, mining, and milling at world-class deposits including McArthur River, Cigar Lake, Inkai Joint Venture in Kazakhstan, and US ISR operations) and Fuel Services (refining, conversion, and CANDU fuel fabrication at Port Hope and Blind River, Ontario). Following the 2023 acquisition of Westinghouse Electric Company alongside Brookfield, Cameco now has equity exposure to the entire nuclear fuel cycle and reactor services value chain — a vertical integration that positions the company uniquely as the nuclear renaissance accelerates.
Cameco reports financials in Canadian dollars (CAD); this report shows the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow tables in CAD (the reporting currency) and runs the DCF in USD (matching the NYSE-listed share price). FX assumption throughout: 1 USD = 1.395 CAD. FY2025 revenue: CAD 3.48B (USD $2.49B); FCF: CAD 1.02B (USD $733M).
The investment narrative crystallized over the past 24 months. Per a May 6 Reuters report, 78 gigawatts of nuclear reactor capacity are under construction across 15 countries, while existing reactor restarts (Constellation/Three Mile Island for Microsoft, Holtec/Palisades for Meta) and small modular reactor (SMR) buildouts (Oklo just received NRC Aurora design approval) are simultaneously increasing demand. Long-term uranium contracting prices now exceed spot — a structural shift signaling utilities are willing to lock in future supply at premium pricing. Cameco's tier-1 reserve base, low-cost conversion business, and Westinghouse stake are all leveraged to this trend.
Investment Thesis
CCJ is the cleanest pure-play on the Western nuclear fuel cycle. Q1 2026 EPS of $0.34 beat estimates by 17%, FY2025 net income grew +240% YoY, and the operational reset under Tim Gitzel — production discipline, reserve-life extension, and Westinghouse integration — has built a durable earnings engine. On May 6 Scotiabank raised its price target to $175 (+41% upside), citing nuclear renaissance acceleration.
Bull drivers: Uranium pricing ratchets higher through 2026-2027 as utility contracting demand exceeds tier-1 production capacity. Cameco's reserves at McArthur River and Cigar Lake have multi-decade duration; production expansion is the only major Western alternative to Kazatomprom (which has its own geopolitical risk). Westinghouse contributes ~$700M+ in equity earnings annually and grows with reactor restart and SMR cycles. Fuel services pricing continues to rise on Russian conversion supply disruption.
Key risks: The stock trades at 92.8x trailing P/E and 7.9x book value — pricing in a perfect commodity cycle and Westinghouse outperformance. FY2025 P/FCF of 53x leaves no margin for disappointment. Uranium spot is volatile and could decompress if reactor restarts are delayed; Kazatomprom production guidance shifts could pressure pricing. Westinghouse integration and earnings volatility are difficult to model. Net Debt/EBITDA improved to ~-0.1x (net cash) but absolute debt remains $1B CAD. Iran tensions easing (which Reuters flagged for OXY today) could reduce the energy security premium reflected in uranium-adjacent equities.
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | C$1.47B | C$1.87B | C$2.59B | C$3.14B | C$3.48B |
| Revenue Growth | — | +26.7% | +38.5% | +21.2% | +10.9% |
| Gross Profit | C$0.00B | C$0.23B | C$0.78B | C$1.06B | C$0.93B |
| Gross Margin | 0.1% | 12.5% | 30.2% | 33.9% | 26.7% |
| Operating Income | -C$0.14B | C$0.02B | C$0.28B | C$0.51B | C$0.58B |
| Operating Margin | -9.2% | 0.8% | 10.9% | 16.3% | 16.7% |
| EBITDA | C$0.15B | C$0.33B | C$0.80B | C$0.79B | C$0.89B |
| Net Income | -C$0.10B | C$0.09B | C$0.36B | C$0.17B | C$0.59B |
| EPS (Diluted) | -$0.26 | $0.22 | $0.83 | $0.39 | $1.35 |
| R&D Expense | C$7M | C$12M | C$21M | C$37M | C$38M |
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & ST Investments | C$1.33B | C$2.28B | C$0.57B | C$0.60B | C$1.21B |
| Total Assets | C$7.52B | C$8.63B | C$9.93B | C$9.91B | C$10.29B |
| PP&E (Net) | C$3.58B | C$3.47B | C$3.37B | C$3.29B | C$3.32B |
| LT Investments (Westinghouse + others) | C$0.23B | C$0.21B | C$3.17B | C$3.22B | C$3.00B |
| Total Debt | C$1.00B | C$1.00B | C$1.78B | C$1.30B | C$1.02B |
| Net Debt | -C$0.25B | -C$0.15B | C$1.22B | C$0.70B | -C$0.09B |
| Stockholders' Equity | C$4.85B | C$5.84B | C$6.09B | C$6.36B | C$6.90B |
| Current Ratio | 5.18x | 5.92x | 1.55x | 1.62x | 2.47x |
| Debt/Equity | 0.21x | 0.17x | 0.29x | 0.20x | 0.15x |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | -1.71x | -0.44x | 1.52x | 0.88x | -0.10x |
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | C$0.46B | C$0.30B | C$0.69B | C$0.91B | C$1.35B |
| OCF Margin | 31.1% | 16.3% | 26.6% | 28.9% | 38.9% |
| Capital Expenditures | -C$99M | -C$143M | -C$154M | -C$212M | -C$333M |
| CapEx % of Rev | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | C$0.36B | C$0.16B | C$0.53B | C$0.69B | C$1.02B |
| FCF Margin | 24.4% | 8.6% | 20.7% | 22.1% | 29.4% |
| Dividends Paid | -C$32M | -C$52M | -C$52M | -C$70M | -C$104M |
| Net Debt Issuance | -C$3M | -C$3M | +C$814M | -C$547M | -C$285M |
| Multiple | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/M | 139.3x | 68.5x | 187.0x | 92.8x |
| P/S Ratio | 7.4x | 6.7x | 9.6x | 10.2x | 15.7x |
| P/B Ratio | 2.3x | 2.1x | 4.1x | 5.0x | 7.9x |
| P/FCF Ratio | 30.5x | 77.2x | 46.3x | 46.3x | 53.5x |
| EV/EBITDA | 72.7x | 37.1x | 32.5x | 41.6x | 61.6x |
| EV/Sales | 7.3x | 6.6x | 10.0x | 10.5x | 15.7x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.29% | 0.42% | 0.21% | 0.22% | 0.19% |
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Equity | -2.1% | 1.5% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 8.5% |
| Return on Assets | -1.4% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 5.7% |
| ROIC | -1.9% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% |
| Asset Turnover | 0.20x | 0.22x | 0.26x | 0.32x | 0.34x |
| Gross Margin | 0.1% | 12.5% | 30.2% | 33.9% | 26.7% |
| Operating Margin | -9.2% | 0.8% | 10.9% | 16.3% | 16.7% |
| Interest Coverage | -2.5x | 0.3x | 3.7x | 4.6x | 7.8x |
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Avg, CAD) | C$3.48B | C$3.52B | C$4.01B | C$4.35B | C$5.13B |
| Rev Growth | +10.9% | +1.3% | +13.7% | +8.5% | +18.1% |
| EPS (Avg, CAD) | $1.35 | $1.60 | $2.71 | $3.43 | $3.94 |
| EPS Growth | +243% | +18.5% | +69.4% | +26.5% | +14.7% |
| # Analysts (Rev) | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| Fwd P/E (USD price / CAD EPS) | 91.7x | 77.4x | 45.7x | 36.1x | 31.4x |
| Name | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMP returned no insider transactions for CCJ in the trailing window. Cameco insiders typically transact via TSX which may not flow into the FMP US-equity insider feed. SEDI (Canada) is the authoritative source. | |||||
Structural uranium supply deficit is here and getting worse. 78GW of nuclear capacity is under construction across 15 countries (per May 2026 PRNewswire reporting), AI hyperscaler reactor restart deals (Microsoft–Three Mile Island, Meta–Palisades, Amazon–Talen) are pulling forward demand, and SMR programs (Oklo just received NRC Aurora design approval) add 5-10 years of incremental U3O8 demand. Cameco is the largest non-Kazakh tier-1 producer with multi-decade reserves at McArthur River and Cigar Lake.
Long-term uranium contracting prices now exceed spot. Per Seeking Alpha coverage on May 6, this represents a structural shift — utilities are willing to pay premium prices to lock in supply, signaling they expect spot to keep rising. Cameco has unhedged exposure to ~50% of FY2026 production at market prices.
Westinghouse is a hidden compounder. The 49% stake (~CAD 3B book value) earns equity-method income that grows with reactor restarts, refueling cycles, and the SMR licensing pipeline. CCJ + Brookfield capture ~$700M+ annually in equity earnings today; that scales meaningfully through FY2030.
Q1 2026 was a clean beat with guidance unchanged. EPS $0.34 vs $0.29 estimate (+17%); FY2025 net income +240% YoY. Tim Gitzel's operational reset is producing measurable results in production cost per pound and reserve-life extension.
Capital structure is pristine. Net cash position (-CAD 92M net debt). Interest coverage 7.8x. CAD 1.02B FCF generation. The company can sustain growth capex, modest dividend growth, and opportunistic deal-making without external capital. Scotiabank's $175 PT (May 6) implies +41% upside.
The valuation prices in everything going right. 92.8x trailing P/E, 53.5x P/FCF, 7.9x P/B. EV/EBITDA of 61.6x is unprecedented for a uranium producer. Even GuruFocus (May 6) flagged CCJ as "still overvalued — GF Score 76/100". The 1Y consensus PT of $115 is actually below current price; only Scotiabank's just-issued $175 anchors the upside narrative.
Uranium spot is volatile and reflexive. If reactor restarts slip, Kazatomprom expands production, or recycling/reprocessing capacity scales faster than expected, spot prices reverse. The sector trades on 52-week-high momentum; any pullback could trigger 25-30% drawdowns rapidly. The stock is currently 87% of its 52-week range.
Iran tensions easing reduces the energy security premium. Today's Reuters reporting on a potential Strait of Hormuz peace deal triggered selloffs across energy equities (OXY -7%). While CCJ is not directly tied to oil, the broader energy security narrative bid is part of why uranium-adjacent equities have rerated. A meaningful diplomatic resolution could derate the entire complex.
Westinghouse contribution is opaque and lumpy. Equity-method earnings depend on reactor refueling cycles, customer mix, and one-time project milestones. Modeling forward EPS growth requires significant assumptions about a private business that doesn't publish standalone financials.
Insider activity is invisible. Cameco insiders transact on TSX via SEDI rather than EDGAR, so FMP's empty insider feed is uninformative — but management's compensation is heavily equity-linked and there's no direct read on conviction at these prices from this data source.
Spot uranium has tripled since 2020. A reactor delay cycle, Kazatomprom production guidance increase, or Russian inventory release could reverse spot pricing 20-30%. Long-term contract pricing is sticky but spot volatility immediately impacts Cameco's unhedged production.
EV/EBITDA of 61.6x and P/B of 7.9x have no margin for error. Consensus 1Y PT is $115 — already below current price. A miss on reactor restart cadence, Westinghouse earnings, or production guidance could trigger 25-40% derate as the stock reverts toward 35-40x EV/EBITDA mid-cycle multiples.
Iran/Hormuz tensions are part of the energy security premium reflected in uranium. A diplomatic resolution would derate the broader complex. Conversely, escalation increases price exposure — the bet runs both ways. CCJ's Inkai joint venture in Kazakhstan adds geopolitical friction with Russian transit dependencies.
Equity-method earnings from Westinghouse depend on refueling cycle timing, customer mix, and one-time milestones. Modeling forward earnings is more art than science. A weak quarter or year doesn't signal long-term degradation but can cause meaningful EPS volatility quarter-to-quarter.
McArthur River and Cigar Lake are world-class but technically challenging deposits. Production interruptions (water inflow, ground control, mill issues) historically have caused 15-25% production misses. Current guidance assumes flawless execution.
USD-denominated uranium revenues translated into CAD reporting. CAD weakness boosts reported earnings; CAD strength compresses them. NYSE-listed shareholders bear additional CAD/USD translation risk on dividend distributions.
Tracks Scotiabank's just-issued PT. Uranium spot pushes through $115/lb on accelerating reactor restart cadence; Westinghouse earnings beat; Cameco guides FY2027 production above current levels. Stock holds 70x FY2027 EPS as the franchise rerates as a "core nuclear holding."
Tracks 1Y consensus average PT of $115 plus modest Westinghouse beat. Uranium spot stable at $90-100/lb. FY2026 EPS lands near consensus $1.60 CAD. EV/EBITDA holds at ~55x — already-elevated multiple grinds higher only modestly.
Iran/Hormuz resolves; energy security premium compresses across the complex. Uranium spot reverts to $70-75/lb. Reactor restart cadence slips. EV/EBITDA derates to 35x mid-cycle. The 200-day MA at $98 is the proximate technical floor; below that, the prior $63 base from late-2025 is in play.
This report was generated using FMP financial data as of May 6, 2026. This is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.