Golar LNG Limited designs, builds, and operates marine infrastructure for the liquefaction and regasification of LNG. After divesting most of its shipping fleet, the company has reshaped itself into a pure-play Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) operator. FLNGs convert offshore natural gas into LNG aboard purpose-built vessels, providing a faster and cheaper alternative to onshore liquefaction terminals.
The current operating fleet centers on the Hilli FLNG (deployed in Cameroon) and the Gimi FLNG (deployed at the BP-led Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project off Mauritania/Senegal, achieving first LNG in 2025). A third unit, FLNG Mark II, is under construction at Seatrium in Singapore with a targeted 2027–2028 delivery, representing the bulk of the $853M FY2025 capex line.
Golar holds approximately $850M in long-term contracted EBITDA from existing FLNG agreements, providing baseline downside protection. Incremental upside comes from LNG-price-linked tolling fees, new FLNG project additions, and a formal strategic alternatives process announced in early 2026 with Goldman Sachs as advisor — outcomes could include a sale, asset divestment, or merger.
Investment Thesis
Golar is a leveraged play on global LNG market tightness with a durable contracted-cash-flow base and embedded optionality on fleet expansion and corporate action. The Gimi FLNG ramp-up is driving the FY2025 revenue surge (+51% YoY to $394M) and EBITDA recovery to $185M. Analyst consensus models revenue more than doubling to $871M by FY2028 as Mark II comes online.
Bull drivers: Structural LNG tightness from Middle East disruptions and Qatar outages elevates the strategic value of fast-deploy FLNG capacity. Golar's units offer roughly 40% lower capex per ton vs onshore alternatives. Long-term contracts provide $850M of run-rate EBITDA visibility. The strategic process could surface a control-premium bid from a private-equity infrastructure fund or strategic operator. Dividend yield of ~7.6% pays investors to wait.
Key risks: Headline P/E of 81x reflects a depressed FY2025 net income figure that includes large minority-interest deductions and project commissioning expenses. FCF was -$425M in FY2025 due to the $853M capex investment cycle. Net debt rose to $1.58B and the dividend payout ratio sits at 466% of GAAP EPS — sustainability depends on the full Mark II ramp delivering on schedule. Beta of 0.10 understates real risk given the binary outcomes around FLNG project execution.
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $260.3M | $267.7M | $298.4M | $260.4M | $393.5M |
| Revenue Growth | — | +2.9% | +11.5% | -12.7% | +51.1% |
| COGS | $120.4M | $127.0M | $143.6M | $175.1M | $209.1M |
| Gross Profit | $139.9M | $140.8M | $154.8M | $85.3M | $184.4M |
| Gross Margin | 53.7% | 52.6% | 51.9% | 32.7% | 46.9% |
| SG&A | $35.3M | $38.1M | $33.5M | $27.5M | $29.6M |
| EBITDA | $29.5M | $1,077M | $53.2M | $147.0M | $184.8M |
| Operating Income | $102.0M | $94.7M | $82.2M | $45.4M | $135.5M |
| Operating Margin | 39.2% | 35.4% | 27.5% | 17.4% | 34.4% |
| Net Income | -$161.1M | $674.6M | -$46.8M | $50.8M | $65.7M |
| EPS (Diluted) | -$1.47 | $6.22 | -$0.44 | $0.48 | $0.65 |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 110 | 109 | 107 | 105 | 101 |
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & ST Investments | $716M | $1,104M | $679M | $566M | $1,176M |
| Total Assets | $4,948M | $4,280M | $4,084M | $4,368M | $5,326M |
| PP&E (FLNGs) | $2,153M | $2,295M | $2,648M | $3,348M | $2,159M |
| Total Debt | $1,634M | $1,194M | $1,224M | $1,459M | $2,758M |
| Net Debt | $1,402M | $315M | $545M | $893M | $1,582M |
| Total Liabilities | $2,770M | $1,379M | $1,482M | $1,998M | $3,258M |
| Stockholders' Equity | $1,731M | $2,500M | $2,068M | $2,014M | $1,843M |
| Minority Interest | $447M | $400M | $535M | $355M | $225M |
| Book Value / Share | $15.78 | $23.18 | $19.39 | $19.33 | $18.19 |
| Current Ratio | 0.71x | 3.04x | 1.49x | 0.88x | 2.55x |
| Debt / Equity | 0.94x | 0.48x | 0.59x | 0.72x | 1.50x |
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $238M | $299M | $135M | $318M | $429M |
| Capital Expenditures | -$213M | -$267M | -$325M | -$439M | -$853M |
| Free Cash Flow | $25M | $31M | -$190M | -$120M | -$425M |
| FCF Margin | 9.5% | 11.7% | -63.7% | -46.2% | -107.9% |
| Net Debt Issuance | $123M | -$443M | $30M | $233M | $1,330M |
| Share Buybacks | -$24M | -$25M | -$62M | -$14M | -$144M |
| Dividends Paid | -$33M | -$55M | -$79M | -$104M | -$306M |
| Multiple | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/M | 3.6x | N/M | 86.7x | 81.0x |
| P/S Ratio | 5.22x | 9.18x | 8.32x | 16.94x | 13.62x |
| P/B Ratio | 0.78x | 0.98x | 1.20x | 2.19x | 2.89x |
| EV/EBITDA | 93.5x | 2.6x | 56.9x | 36.1x | 37.6x |
| EV/Sales | 10.6x | 10.4x | 10.1x | 20.4x | 17.6x |
| FCF Yield | 1.8% | 1.3% | N/M | N/M | N/M |
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 7.6% |
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Equity | -9.3% | 27.0% | -2.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% |
| Return on Assets | -3.3% | 15.8% | -1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| ROIC | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.6% |
| Asset Turnover | 0.05x | 0.06x | 0.07x | 0.06x | 0.07x |
| Gross Margin | 53.7% | 52.6% | 51.9% | 32.7% | 46.9% |
| EBITDA Margin | 11.4% | N/M | 17.8% | 56.4% | 47.0% |
| Interest Coverage | 2.6x | 3.2x | 41.6x | 8.8x | 4.1x |
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Avg) | $393.5M | $399.2M | $428.3M | $871.0M | $1,092M |
| Rev Growth | +51.1% | +1.4% | +7.3% | +103.4% | +25.4% |
| EBITDA (Avg) | $184.8M | $185.7M | $199.2M | $405.2M | $508.0M |
| EPS (Avg) | $0.65 | $0.79 | $0.70 | $3.97 | N/A |
| # Analysts (Rev) | — | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Fwd P/E | 81.0x | 66.6x | 75.0x | 13.3x | N/A |
| Name | Title | Type | Shares Held | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No insider activity in the last 60 days | |||||
Structural LNG market tightness drives FLNG demand. Middle East geopolitical disruption and Qatar LNG outages have re-rated fast-deploy floating liquefaction assets. Golar's units offer ~40% lower capex per ton than onshore alternatives and 18–24 months faster time-to-market. Hilli and Gimi are both fully contracted; incremental upside comes from new project FIDs.
Mark II FLNG inflection in FY2028. Analyst consensus models EBITDA more than doubling from $185M today to $405M in FY2028 as Mark II reaches commercial operations. EPS jumps from $0.79 in FY2026 to $3.97 in FY2028 — collapsing forward P/E to ~13x. The current quote is pricing in only the contracted-only run-rate, not the development pipeline.
Strategic alternatives process is a near-term catalyst. The formal review with Goldman Sachs (announced early 2026) creates optionality for a corporate transaction at a control premium. Infrastructure private equity (KKR, Brookfield, GIP) has shown active interest in FLNG-style midstream assets at 9–11x EBITDA — applying that to the FY2028 run-rate yields material upside.
Income payment plus M&A optionality. Investors collect a ~7.6% dividend yield while waiting. The dividend is funded by contracted EBITDA and project finance proceeds — sustainable through the Mark II construction window.
Mark II execution risk is concentrated. A single FLNG vessel under construction at Seatrium represents the lion's share of forward earnings power. Cost overruns, commissioning delays, or technical issues during the Q4 2027–H1 2028 startup window could push the EPS inflection out 12–24 months and break the dividend coverage thesis.
Dividend coverage is mathematically strained. $306M in FY2025 dividends against $66M in net income is a 466% payout ratio. The $4.00 annualized DPS is funded by drawdowns on cash reserves and new debt issuance ($1.33B in FY2025) rather than from earnings. A cut would crush the income thesis and collapse the unlevered yield bid that supports the stock.
Headline valuation looks rich on current earnings. 81x trailing P/E and 13.6x P/S are demanding even with the FY2028 ramp ahead. If LNG prices revert with peace developments in the Middle East (as the April 2026 ceasefire news temporarily suggested), the strategic-alternatives bid may not materialize at expected premiums.
Net debt rising during the spending cycle. Net debt grew from $545M in FY2023 to $1.58B in FY2025 — a 3x increase in two years. While this funds productive capex, it leaves limited cushion for unexpected delays or LNG price weakness during the 2026–2027 construction phase.
Mark II FLNG completion and commissioning at Seatrium is the single largest forward-earnings driver. FLNG units are technically complex; historical precedent for first-of-class designs suggests 6–18 month delay risk versus initial schedules. A delayed Mark II would extend the negative-FCF window and pressure dividend sustainability.
Hilli FLNG's tolling fee includes a Brent-linked component and TTF/JKM-linked LNG-price participation. A sustained reversion to $30–40 LNG environment (vs. recent $60–80) would compress per-unit margins and reduce upside above the contracted EBITDA floor. Counterparty exposure to Perenco (Cameroon) and BP/Kosmos (Mauritania) adds project-specific risk.
The Goldman-led strategic alternatives review may not result in a transaction at a meaningful premium. A "no deal" outcome, a partial asset sale at lower-than-expected multiples, or a negotiated merger of equals could disappoint investors who have positioned for a control-premium exit. The strategic process also distracts management during a critical construction window.
Strategic alternatives review yields a control-premium outcome (10–11x FY2028E EBITDA). Mark II commissions on schedule. New FLNG project FID announced. LNG market remains structurally tight.
Mark II tracks construction milestones. Strategic process closes with no headline transaction but yields one new FLNG announcement. Stock re-rates modestly toward analyst PT of $56 as FY2028 visibility improves.
Mark II delivery delayed 12+ months. Strategic process ends with no transaction. LNG prices ease as Middle East tensions resolve. Dividend cut from $4.00 to $2.00 to preserve capital. Stock re-rates to ~9x FY2028E EBITDA on contracted-only assets.
This report was generated using FMP financial data as of April 26, 2026. This is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.