Micron Technology, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Compute and Networking Business Unit (CNBU), Mobile Business Unit (MBU), Storage Business Unit (SBU), and Embedded Business Unit (EBU). Its core products are DRAM (dynamic random access memory), NAND flash, and NOR memory, marketed under the Micron and Crucial brands.
Micron is one of only three companies globally (alongside Samsung and SK Hynix) that can manufacture leading-edge DRAM at scale. The memory industry is highly cyclical, subject to dramatic swings in pricing based on supply/demand dynamics. Micron's FY2023 loss of $5.8B underscores this volatility — an industry downturn caused by inventory digestion following the COVID demand surge.
The company is headquartered in Boise, Idaho, and operates fab facilities in the US, Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore. It generated $37.4B in revenue in FY2025 (ended August 2025) with $8.5B in net income, recovering sharply from the FY2023 trough. A major US fab investment in Idaho and New York is underway with CHIPS Act support.
Investment Thesis
Micron is the highest-leverage pure-play on the AI memory supercycle. High Bandwidth Memory (HBM3/HBM3e) demand from AI accelerators is structurally different from commodity DRAM — it commands 5-8x the ASP per bit and is supply-constrained through 2026-2027. Micron is rapidly ramping HBM3e and has won design wins with NVIDIA, AMD, and others.
Bull drivers: HBM3e share gains from Samsung's quality issues, CHIPS Act subsidies reducing future capex burden, data center DRAM demand outpacing traditional server build rates, and the ongoing shift to higher-content AI servers (each H100 node uses ~6 HBM stacks). The stock trades at ~56x TTM earnings but ~10-15x forward estimates if the upcycle materializes as expected.
Key risks: Memory is deeply cyclical — the FY2023 wipeout proved supply can overwhelm demand within 12 months. Micron is a price-taker, not a price-setter. Samsung's aggressive capacity additions, Chinese DRAM competition from CXMT, and any AI capex slowdown are meaningful threats to pricing power and margin sustainability.
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $27.71B | $30.76B | $15.54B | $25.11B | $37.38B |
| Revenue Growth | — | +11.0% | -49.5% | +61.6% | +48.9% |
| Gross Profit | $10.42B | $13.90B | -$1.42B | $5.61B | $14.87B |
| Gross Margin | 37.6% | 45.2% | -9.1% | 22.4% | 39.8% |
| R&D Expense | $2.66B | $3.12B | $3.11B | $3.43B | $3.80B |
| SG&A Expense | $894M | $1.07B | $920M | $1.13B | $1.21B |
| Operating Income | $6.28B | $9.70B | -$5.75B | $1.30B | $9.87B |
| Operating Margin | 22.7% | 31.5% | -37.0% | 5.2% | 26.4% |
| Net Income | $5.86B | $8.69B | -$5.83B | $778M | $8.54B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $5.14 | $7.76 | -$5.36 | $0.70 | $7.59 |
| Shares (Diluted, M) | 1,141M | 1,122M | 1,093M | 1,118M | 1,125M |
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & ST Investments | $8.63B | $9.33B | $9.59B | $8.11B | $10.31B |
| Total Assets | $58.85B | $66.28B | $64.25B | $69.42B | $82.80B |
| Total Debt | $7.28B | $7.52B | $13.93B | $14.01B | $15.28B |
| Net Debt | -$1.35B | -$1.81B | $4.34B | $5.90B | $4.97B |
| Total Liabilities | $14.92B | $16.38B | $20.13B | $24.29B | $28.63B |
| Stockholders' Equity | $43.93B | $49.91B | $44.12B | $45.13B | $54.17B |
| Book Value / Share | $38.50 | $44.48 | $40.37 | $40.37 | $48.15 |
| Inventory | $4.49B | $6.66B | $8.39B | $8.88B | $8.36B |
| Current Ratio | 3.10x | 2.89x | 4.46x | 2.64x | 2.52x |
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $12.47B | $15.18B | $1.56B | $8.51B | $17.53B |
| Capital Expenditures | -$10.03B | -$12.07B | -$7.68B | -$8.39B | -$15.86B |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.44B | $3.11B | -$6.12B | $121M | $1.67B |
| FCF Margin | 8.8% | 10.1% | -39.4% | 0.5% | 4.5% |
| Stock-Based Comp | $378M | $514M | $596M | $833M | $972M |
| Dividends Paid | $0 | -$463M | -$499M | -$513M | -$522M |
| Share Buybacks | -$1.20B | -$2.43B | -$425M | -$300M | $0 |
| Net Debt Issuance | -$330M | -$33M | $5.96B | -$900M | -$189M |
| Multiple | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.1x | 7.3x | N/M | 135.7x | 56.2x |
| P/S Ratio | 2.99x | 2.07x | 4.92x | 4.21x | 12.84x |
| P/B Ratio | 1.89x | 1.28x | 1.73x | 2.34x | 8.86x |
| P/FCF Ratio | 34.0x | 20.5x | N/M | 872.7x | 287.7x |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4x | 3.8x | 37.0x | 12.6x | 26.2x |
| EV/Sales | 2.97x | 2.05x | 5.26x | 4.48x | 13.0x |
| FCF Yield | 2.9% | 4.9% | -8.0% | 0.1% | 0.35% |
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Equity | 13.3% | 17.4% | -13.2% | 1.7% | 15.8% |
| Return on Assets | 10.2% | 13.4% | -9.3% | 1.1% | 10.5% |
| ROIC | 11.2% | 15.0% | -9.6% | 1.4% | 12.1% |
| Asset Turnover | 0.47x | 0.46x | 0.24x | 0.36x | 0.45x |
| Current Ratio | 3.10x | 2.89x | 4.46x | 2.64x | 2.52x |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | -0.04x | -0.04x | 2.42x | 0.78x | 0.30x |
| Interest Coverage | N/A | N/A | N/M | 4.0x | 20.7x |
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Avg) | $37.38B | $40.5B | $52.0B | $62.0B | $72.0B |
| Rev Growth | +48.9% | +8.4% | +28.4% | +19.2% | +16.1% |
| EPS (Avg) | $7.59 | $8.50 | $14.00 | $18.00 | $22.50 |
| EPS Growth | +983% | +12.0% | +64.7% | +28.6% | +25.0% |
| # Analysts (Rev) | Actual | 26 | 28 | 22 | 11 |
| Fwd P/E | 56.2x | 50.2x | 30.5x | 23.7x | 19.0x |
| Name | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanjay Mehrotra | President & CEO | Tax W/H | 12,450 | $410.22 | Apr 1 |
| Mark Murphy | EVP & CFO | Tax W/H | 5,820 | $408.15 | Apr 1 |
| Sumit Sadana | EVP & COO | Sale | 8,000 | $415.60 | Mar 28 |
| Manish Bhatia | EVP, Global Ops | Tax W/H | 4,210 | $408.15 | Apr 1 |
| April Arnzen | EVP, People | Sale | 2,500 | $388.40 | Mar 15 |
| Robert Switz | Director | Tax W/H | 1,100 | $408.15 | Apr 1 |
| Linnie Haynesworth | Director | Tax W/H | 890 | $408.15 | Apr 1 |
| Sanjay Mehrotra | President & CEO | Sale | 15,000 | $392.80 | Mar 18 |
HBM3e is a structural step-change in memory economics. High Bandwidth Memory for AI accelerators commands 5-8x the ASP of standard DRAM per bit and requires fundamentally different manufacturing capabilities — creating a moat within the oligopoly. Micron's HBM3e has already achieved strong validation from NVIDIA and is ramping into the GB200 platform.
Samsung's quality issues open market share. Reports of Samsung HBM3e yield problems in 2025 pushed design wins to both Micron and SK Hynix. If Samsung's recovery is delayed, Micron could exit FY2026 with 20-25% HBM market share vs. a historical 0%.
CHIPS Act fundamentally changes the cost structure. Micron is receiving $6.1B in direct grants plus potential $8B+ in loans for its Idaho and New York fabs. This shifts roughly $14B of future capex risk to the government, directly protecting FCF through the next cycle trough.
AI memory content per server is exploding. Each NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 rack uses 1.5TB of HBM — 6x more than prior generation. As AI training and inference clusters scale, the DRAM dollar content per compute dollar rises structurally, not cyclically.
Memory is still deeply cyclical. The FY2023 disaster — gross margin went negative, the company lost $5.8B — proves that even a few quarters of excess supply destroys economics. Samsung's Korea fabs are running 24/7 again. CXMT in China is ramping DDR5 with government subsidies. A demand pause in 2027 could reprice DRAM down 40-50% quickly.
The stock is pricing in near-perfection. At $480B market cap on $37B of revenue and $1.7B of FCF, the market is embedding a large, sustained AI memory upcycle lasting multiple years. P/FCF of 288x and P/S of 12.8x leave no room for a cyclical miss or timing delay.
Capex intensity is extreme. Micron spent $15.9B in capex in FY2025 on $37.4B of revenue — a 42% capex/rev ratio. This compresses FCF to near zero. If the AI demand cycle softens before the new CHIPS Act fabs are fully productive, the company faces a brutal combination of low revenue, low pricing, and high fixed costs.
China competition is accelerating. CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) has crossed 1znm DRAM process maturity and is selling domestically at subsidized prices. Over 3-5 years, Chinese self-sufficiency in commodity DRAM could structurally compress margins for all incumbents.
Memory pricing is notoriously volatile. The FY2023 downcycle saw DRAM spot prices fall 60-70% from peak. A repeat scenario — triggered by over-supply from Samsung, SK Hynix expansions, or an AI capex pause — could return Micron to negative gross margins within 2-3 quarters.
At 42% capex/revenue, Micron's free cash flow is minimal even in a good year ($1.7B in FY2025). The new US fab commitments lock in $15-20B of annual capex for years. Any revenue shortfall creates negative FCF, requiring external financing and dilution risk.
CXMT and YMTC are rapidly improving process maturity with state subsidies. China memory could structurally reduce global ASPs by 2027-2028. Additionally, US-China trade restrictions could limit Micron's ability to sell into its largest export market, creating a dual demand and supply headwind.
HBM3e volumes exceed expectations. Samsung share losses persist through FY2026. AI server builds accelerate beyond consensus. FY2027 EPS reaches $20+, stock trades at 29x forward EPS.
Revenue tracks consensus ~$40.5B FY2026, $52B FY2027. HBM3e ramps on schedule. CHIPS Act subsidies offset some capex burden. Stock holds 28-30x FY2027E EPS as upcycle narrative holds.
AI capex pause or memory oversupply causes pricing to roll. FY2026 misses badly. With near-zero FCF and high capex commitments, multiple compresses to 15-18x trough earnings.
This report was generated using FMP financial data as of April 13, 2026. This is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.