Teck Resources Limited (NYSE: TECK, TSX: TECK.B) is a Vancouver-based diversified base-metals miner that completed a landmark strategic transformation in 2024: the sale of its Elk Valley Resources steelmaking coal business to Glencore for approximately US$8.9B. Teck is now a copper-focused miner, with copper and zinc as its two core segments. Its flagship copper growth asset is Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 (QB2) in northern Chile — a large open-pit operation that entered commercial production in 2023 and is ramping toward nameplate capacity. The zinc segment includes the Red Dog mine (Alaska, world-class zinc-lead), Trail Operations (British Columbia, zinc smelter and specialty metals including indium and germanium), and minority interests in other operations.
Teck reports all financial statements in Canadian dollars (CAD). This report presents Sections 4–6 (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow) and Sections 10–11 (multiples, efficiency) in CAD. The NYSE share price is quoted in USD; therefore, USD-price-based multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA) mix a USD numerator with CAD denominators — multiples are computed using the CAD-denominated market cap and EV from FMP key metrics, which use a consistent CAD framework. This is flagged throughout. FY2025 is the first full fiscal year reflecting the post-coal operating structure; FY2021–2023 figures include steelmaking coal and are shown for trend context only, with the structural break in FY2024.
The FY2025 revenue base of C$10.75B reflects the QB2 ramp and higher copper prices. FY2025 EBITDA of C$4.37B was the strongest in five years. Net debt rose to C$5.38B as the company funds the QB2 build-out and continues a C$1.0B+ annual buyback program while maintaining dividends.
Investment Thesis
The post-coal pivot transforms Teck into a purer copper growth vehicle at an inflection point for the commodity. QB2 is the most significant new copper mine to reach production in the western hemisphere in a decade, with nameplate capacity of ~316,000 tpd ore and a resource base supporting decades of mine life. Q1 2026 results showed a 207% EPS surge and record copper sales, validating the ramp trajectory. Copper at record prices (MarketWatch, May 12) — driven by AI infrastructure, electrification, and supply constraints — provides a strong macro tailwind.
Bull drivers: QB2 production growth (volumes rising through 2026–2028 toward full capacity); structural copper deficit as global mine supply growth is chronically below demand forecasts; Anglo American merger discussions add strategic optionality; Trail Operations' specialty metals (germanium, indium) benefit from critical-minerals demand; balance-sheet deleveraging as QB2 capex intensity declines post-2027; strong buyback cadence (C$1.0B/yr) reduces share count.
Key risks: The stock trades near its 52-week high at 8.6x EV/EBITDA and 1.29x P/B — consensus PTs of $62 (last quarter) imply the current price reflects near-term copper optimism. Net Debt/EBITDA of 1.23x is manageable but FCF was negative in FY2025 (heavy capex). Copper price volatility is the dominant risk; every $0.10/lb change in copper moves EBITDA by approximately C$100–150M. Chile jurisdiction risk (royalty/regulatory), QB2 execution risk (throughput rates, recoveries), and FX (USD/CAD and USD/CLP) are structural considerations.
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | C$12.77B | C$17.32B | C$6.48B | C$9.07B | C$10.75B |
| Revenue Growth | — | +35.7% | -62.6%† | +40.0% | +18.6% |
| Gross Profit | C$5.21B | C$8.57B | C$1.11B | C$1.61B | C$2.35B |
| Gross Margin | 40.8% | 49.5% | 17.2%† | 17.7% | 21.8% |
| EBITDA | C$6.16B | C$8.22B | C$0.86B | C$1.78B | C$4.37B |
| EBITDA Margin | 48.2% | 47.5% | 13.3% | 19.7% | 40.7% |
| Operating Income | C$4.98B | C$6.99B | C$0.22B | -C$0.01B | C$1.77B |
| Net Income (reported) | C$2.87B | C$3.32B | C$2.41B‡ | C$0.41B‡ | C$1.40B |
| EPS (diluted, CAD) | C$5.31 | C$6.19 | C$4.60‡ | C$0.78‡ | C$2.83 |
| D&A | C$1.49B | C$1.67B | C$0.93B | C$1.73B | C$1.90B |
| Interest Expense | C$0.04B | C$0.06B | C$0.03B | C$0.79B | C$0.82B |
† FY2021–2023 revenue and margins include steelmaking coal (Elk Valley Resources, divested to Glencore in 2024). FY2023 revenue decline reflects partial-year coal accounting adjustments pre-divestiture. ‡ FY2023 and FY2024 net income includes large discontinued-operations gains (coal sale proceeds). Continuing-operations profitability was negative in both years. FY2025 is first clean post-coal year.
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | C$1.43B | C$1.88B | C$0.74B | C$7.59B | C$5.01B |
| Total Current Assets | C$6.10B | C$8.29B | C$6.47B | C$12.57B | C$11.15B |
| PP&E (net) | C$37.38B | C$40.10B | C$45.57B | C$30.57B | C$29.70B |
| Total Assets | C$47.37B | C$52.36B | C$56.19B | C$47.04B | C$45.40B |
| Total Debt (gross) | C$9.33B | C$10.02B | C$11.09B | C$9.97B | C$10.39B |
| Net Debt | C$7.90B | C$8.13B | C$10.35B | C$2.38B | C$5.38B |
| Shareholders' Equity | C$23.01B | C$25.47B | C$26.99B | C$26.08B | C$25.08B |
| Total Equity (incl. NCI) | C$23.77B | C$26.51B | C$28.29B | C$27.10B | C$25.99B |
| Current Ratio | 1.62x | 1.41x | 1.10x | 2.88x | 2.54x |
| Debt / Equity | 0.41x | 0.39x | 0.41x | 0.38x | 0.41x |
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | C$4.74B | C$7.98B | C$4.08B | C$2.79B | C$1.04B |
| Capital Expenditure | -C$4.63B | -C$5.47B | -C$4.34B | -C$2.64B | -C$2.06B |
| Free Cash Flow | C$0.11B | C$2.52B | -C$0.26B | C$0.16B | -C$1.02B |
| Net Investing Activities | -C$4.82B | -C$5.68B | -C$4.76B | C$6.17B | -C$2.00B |
| Net Financing Activities | C$1.06B | -C$1.99B | -C$0.47B | -C$2.57B | -C$1.32B |
| Dividends Paid | -C$0.11B | -C$0.53B | -C$0.52B | -C$0.51B | -C$0.25B |
| Share Buybacks | C$0.00B | -C$1.39B | -C$0.25B | -C$1.24B | -C$1.01B |
| Net Change in Cash | C$0.98B | C$0.46B | -C$1.14B | C$6.84B | -C$2.23B |
| FCF per Share (CAD) | C$0.20 | C$4.78 | -C$0.49 | C$0.30 | -C$2.06 |
FY2024 net investing activities includes ~C$9.5B from the Glencore coal-sale proceeds (Elk Valley Resources divestiture). FY2025 FCF negative due to QB2 ramp capex; management expects FCF to turn positive as capex declines post-2026.
| Multiple | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 (Current) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | 6.8x | 8.1x | 12.0x‡ | 74.1x‡ | 23.2x |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.4x | 4.3x | 45.7x† | 18.2x | 8.6x |
| EV/Sales | 2.1x | 2.0x | 6.1x | 3.6x | 3.5x |
| P/B | 0.84x | 1.06x | 1.07x | 1.15x | 1.29x |
| P/Sales | 1.52x | 1.56x | 4.47x | 3.32x | 3.02x |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 1.28x | 0.99x | 12.0x† | 1.33x | 1.23x |
| Dividend Yield (USD) | 0.55% | 1.97% | 1.78% | 1.71% | 0.76% |
† FY2023 ratios distorted by coal transition (lower EBITDA on partial-year copper-only basis). ‡ FY2023/FY2024 P/E distorted by discontinued-operations income (coal sale gains). EV/EBITDA at 8.6x is the most relevant ongoing valuation anchor; mid-cycle copper miner peers typically trade 5–7x on consensus EBITDA.
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 12.5% | 13.0% | 8.9% | 1.6% | 5.6% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 0.9% | 3.1% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 7.7% | 9.2% | 0.4% | ~0.0% | 2.8% |
| EBITDA Margin | 48.2% | 47.5% | 13.3% | 19.7% | 40.7% |
| Net Profit Margin | 22.5% | 19.2% | 37.2%‡ | 4.5%‡ | 13.0% |
| Asset Turnover | 0.27x | 0.33x | 0.12x | 0.19x | 0.24x |
| Interest Coverage | 112x | 108x | 7.2x | ~0x | 2.2x |
| Capex / Revenue | 36.3% | 31.6% | 67.0% | 29.1% | 19.2% |
| Metric | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (avg, CAD) | C$14.24B | C$12.18B | C$13.24B |
| Revenue (low–high) | C$12.0–16.5B | C$10.7–13.8B | C$11.6–15.0B |
| EBITDA (avg, CAD) | C$4.82B | C$4.12B | C$4.48B |
| EPS (avg, CAD) | C$4.37 | C$3.26 | C$3.64 |
| EPS (low–high) | C$2.86–5.80 | C$2.74–3.82 | C$3.06–4.27 |
| # Analysts (Rev / EPS) | 16 / 15 | 14 / 7 | 15 / 10 |
| Fwd P/E (vs FY2027E EPS C$4.37) | ~15.1x (USD price / CAD EPS — mixed currency) | ||
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Annual Meeting (Shareholder Vote) | Governance | — | — |
| Insider trading data unavailable from FMP for this symbol at this time. Most recent governance event: Annual Meeting of Shareholders held April 23, 2026 — 78.53% of eligible votes cast. No unusual insider selling or buying reported in public filings in the 60-day window prior to report date. | ||||
- ▶ QB2 Full Ramp: Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 reaches design throughput of 316,000 tpd, driving copper production toward 500,000+ tonnes/year by 2027–28. At $4.50/lb copper, EBITDA could reach C$6–7B vs current C$4.4B.
- ▶ Structural Copper Deficit: AI data-center build-out, grid electrification, and EV adoption create demand that mine supply cannot match. Record copper prices could persist through this decade.
- ▶ Anglo American M&A Optionality: Reports of an Anglo American-Teck tie-up (Proactive Investors, Apr 2026) could unlock significant value through asset complementarity and scale economics.
- ▶ Critical Minerals Premium: Trail Operations produces indium and germanium — both U.S. critical minerals. Tariff regimes and supply-chain reshoring add a strategic premium not in consensus.
- ▶ Buyback Leverage: C$1B+/yr buyback at reduced share count (493M in 2025 vs 535M in 2021) amplifies EPS growth as volumes rise. FCF inflection post-2026 funds accelerated returns.
- ▷ Copper Price Cyclicality: Copper has historically mean-reverted from record prices. A correction to $3.50/lb would cut EBITDA by ~C$1–1.5B and likely compress the multiple simultaneously — double leverage to the downside.
- ▷ QB2 Execution Risk: Large open-pit mines in northern Chile face water rights constraints, tailings management complexity, and throughput ramp variability. Recoveries below nameplate would disappoint on both volume and cost guidance.
- ▷ Balance Sheet Tightening: Net Debt rose from C$2.4B to C$5.4B in FY2025 despite coal-sale cash. FCF is negative; if copper softens simultaneously with high capex, leverage could approach uncomfortable levels (2x+ Net Debt/EBITDA).
- ▷ Chile Jurisdiction Risk: Chile's ongoing royalty debate, water regulation tightening, and community relations issues have historically caused project delays and permitting uncertainty for Andean operators.
- ▷ Consensus PT Discount: Every analyst price target average (last quarter: $62, last year: $54.25, all-time: $44.60) sits below the current $66.16. The stock is pricing in a bull scenario; any guidance disappointment could reprice sharply.
Copper and zinc are the primary revenue drivers. Teck's EBITDA is highly leveraged to copper price (~C$100–150M per $0.10/lb move). Zinc, while more stable, has its own cyclical dynamics. There is no meaningful hedging disclosed — the company is fully exposed to spot prices.
QB2 entered commercial production in 2023 and remains in ramp-up. Throughput, recovery, and cost per tonne are still tracking toward nameplate. Any technical setback (equipment, water availability, geotechnical events) could reset the growth trajectory.
Chile remains a medium-risk jurisdiction for mining after years of royalty debates and constitutional reform discussions. Changes to the royalty regime or water rights for QB2 could materially impact after-tax economics. Alaska (Red Dog) and BC (Trail) are stable but face environmental and permitting scrutiny.
Copper is priced in USD; Teck reports in CAD. A stronger CAD vs USD reduces realized revenue in reporting currency. Chilean peso (CLP) is the operating cost currency for QB2, adding a secondary FX layer. Zinc revenue at Trail is also USD-priced vs CAD costs.
Net debt of C$5.4B with negative FCF in FY2025. The company is simultaneously funding high capex, buybacks, and dividends. FCF inflection post-2026 is the thesis; if copper falls before that inflection, leverage could become a constraint on returns of capital.
Teck sold its coal business — a near-term accretive move for ESG re-rating — but now holds a more concentrated portfolio with fewer business-cycle offsets. Historical earnings diversity (coal + copper + zinc) provided some buffer; copper-only cyclical exposure magnifies peak-to-trough swings.
| Scenario | Copper Price | FY2026E EBITDA | EV/EBITDA Applied | Implied EV | Target Price (USD) | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — Record Copper Cycle | $5.00/lb | C$6.0B | 9.5x (premium ramp) | C$57.0B | $88–95 | +33–44% |
| Base — Mid-Cycle Copper | $4.25/lb | C$4.8B | 7.5x (mid-cycle) | C$36.0B | $58–65 | -2–12% |
| Bear — Copper Correction | $3.50/lb | C$3.2B | 5.5x (trough) | C$17.6B | $32–40 | -40–52% |
Methodology: Scenarios are anchored on mid-cycle EV/EBITDA (5–10x range for large copper producers based on historical cycle comps including FCX, BHP copper division, and HBM), not peak or trough earnings multiples. Current FY2025 EV/EBITDA of 8.6x already prices in a constructive copper environment. P/B at 1.29x is a secondary cross-check — book value is dominated by PP&E at QB2, which is marked at construction cost, so P/B is a floor in distress scenarios. The base case assumes copper moderates from current records (~$4.80/lb as of May 2026) to a mid-cycle level consistent with consensus. Key sensitivity: every 1x EV/EBITDA turn on C$4.8B base EBITDA = ~C$4.8B enterprise value swing ≈ $4/share in USD. USD targets derived from CAD EV using 0.73 USD/CAD (May 2026 approx). Targets are 12-month, assuming QB2 continues to ramp without major operational disruption. A note on currency mixing: NYSE price is USD; Teck's financial base is CAD. The USD/CAD rate (currently ~0.73–0.74) is therefore a significant valuation input for USD-priced investors — CAD weakness is a risk to USD-denominated returns even if CAD-intrinsic value is stable.
This report was generated using FMP financial data as of 2026-06-01. For informational purposes only; does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All financial data in CAD unless otherwise noted. NYSE share price in USD; EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples computed using CAD-framework market cap and earnings from FMP key metrics for currency consistency.