Vertiv Holdings Co NYSE: VRT Industrials Electrical Equipment & Parts
Westerville, OH · CEO: Giordano Albertazzi · ~31,000 Employees · IPO 2018 (SPAC)
EQUITY RESEARCH REPORT
2026-06-01
Share Price
$315.71
+$1.53 (+0.49%)
Market Cap
$121.3B
382M diluted shares
52-Week Range
$105.68–$379.94
+199% from 52W low
50-Day MA
$307.36
Price +2.7% above MA50
P/E (Trailing)
92.6x
FY25 EPS $3.41
EV/EBITDA
55.8x
FY25 EBITDA $2.21B
P/B
30.6x
BV/sh $10.33 (FY25)
Beta
2.10
High-volatility cyclical
BUY
Analyst Consensus: Strong Buy
12-of-13 recent ratings are Buy / Outperform / Overweight. Single Peer Perform dissent (Wolfe Research, Dec 2025).
Goldman Sachs Buy JP Morgan Overweight Citi Buy Barclays Overweight Morgan Stanley Overweight TD Cowen Buy
Near-Term PT
$408.57
Last-month avg (7 analysts)
+29.4% upside
Last-Quarter PT
$374.53
Last-quarter avg (15 analysts)
+18.7% upside
3 Company Overview

Vertiv Holdings Co designs, manufactures, and services critical digital infrastructure for data centers, communication networks, and commercial/industrial environments. Its core product families — AC/DC power management, thermal/cooling (liquid and air), integrated racks, modular solutions, and monitoring/DCIM software — are the essential life-support systems for every hyperscale and enterprise data center on the planet.

The company sells under the Liebert (power and cooling), NetSure (telecom DC power), Geist (rack PDUs), and Avocent (KVM/DCIM) brands through direct sales, channel partners, and OEM relationships. Revenue is split roughly 60% Americas, 25% EMEA, and 15% Asia Pacific.

Vertiv went public in 2018 via a SPAC with Platinum Equity and has since executed a dramatic financial transformation: from negative OCF and near-insolvent balance sheet in 2022 to $2.1B operating cash flow and $3.94B in equity in FY2025. With ~31,000 employees globally, it operates in a duopoly/oligopoly alongside Eaton and Schneider Electric in data-center power, with a growing lead in liquid cooling for GPU clusters.

Investment Thesis

Structural AI-infrastructure beneficiary with durable pricing power. Every GPU cluster requires roughly 3–5 kW of power and cooling per kW of compute. As NVIDIA Blackwell and successor architectures scale to 1 MW+ rack densities, Vertiv's liquid-cooling and high-density power products become a non-negotiable line item. Q1 2026 organic revenue grew 23% YoY; management guides 29–31% organic for full-year 2026.

Backlog visibility is exceptional. VRT exited Q1 2026 with a $12.45B order backlog — up 80% year-over-year — providing roughly 4–5 quarters of forward revenue cover and significant protection against demand cyclicality. Customer deposits and deferred revenue on the balance sheet ($1.81B at FY25) further derisk the revenue ramp.

Margin inflection is structural, not cyclical. EBITDA margin expanded from 10.8% (FY2022) to 21.6% (FY2025) as volume leverage, pricing, and manufacturing efficiency compounded. Management targets >27% EBITDA margin by 2030. Operating FCF conversion (OCF/EBITDA) is already 96% — a signal of high-quality earnings, not financial engineering.

Balance sheet fully repaired. Net debt fell from $3.09B (FY2022) to $1.68B (FY2025) even as the company invested $1.18B in acquisitions in 2025. Interest coverage is 22x, and leverage is <1x EBITDA — offering significant capacity for further M&A or buybacks.

4 Income Statement — Annual (USD)
Metric FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025
Revenue$5.00B$5.69B$6.86B$8.01B$10.23B
Gross Profit$1.38B$1.40B$2.22B$2.75B$3.51B
Gross Margin27.6%24.6%32.3%34.4%34.4%
Operating Income (EBIT)$269M$222M$907M$1,379M$1,897M
EBIT Margin5.4%3.9%13.2%17.2%18.5%
EBITDA$484M$617M$1,024M$1,193M$2,206M
EBITDA Margin9.7%10.8%14.9%14.9%21.6%
Interest Expense$91M$147M$219M$150M$86M
Net Income$120M$77M$460M$496M$1,333M
EPS (Diluted)$0.34($0.04)$1.19$1.28$3.41
D&A$227M$302M$271M$277M$309M
SG&A$843M$896M$1,009M$1,022M$1,618M
5 Balance Sheet — Annual (USD)
Metric FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025
Cash & Equivalents$447M$273M$789M$1,232M$1,728M
Accounts Receivable$1,536M$1,889M$2,185M$2,363M$3,109M
Inventory$616M$822M$884M$1,244M$1,457M
Total Current Assets$2,699M$3,159M$4,002M$5,102M$6,820M
Goodwill & Intangibles$3,468M$3,101M$3,003M$2,808M$3,929M
Total Assets$6,940M$7,096M$7,999M$9,133M$12,212M
Total Debt$3,128M$3,368M$3,126M$3,317M$3,403M
Net Debt$2,681M$3,095M$2,338M$2,085M$1,675M
Deferred Revenue$291M$359M$639M$1,063M$1,815M
Total Liabilities$5,522M$5,654M$5,984M$6,698M$8,271M
Total Equity$1,418M$1,442M$2,015M$2,434M$3,941M
Book Value / Share$3.99$3.83$5.30$6.47$10.33
6 Cash Flow Statement — Annual (USD)
Metric FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025
Operating Cash Flow$211M($153M)$901M$1,319M$2,114M
Capital Expenditures($85M)($111M)($135M)($184M)($220M)
Free Cash Flow$126M($264M)$766M$1,135M$1,894M
FCF Margin2.5%n/m11.2%14.2%18.5%
Acquisitions (net)($1,142M)($5M)($17M)($18M)($1,185M)
Stock-Based Comp$23M$25M$25M$35M$46M
Dividends Paid($4M)($4M)($10M)($42M)($67M)
Net Change in Cash($96M)($174M)+$515M+$444M+$558M
7 Revenue & Free Cash Flow (FY2021–FY2025)
8 Debt & Deleveraging (FY2021–FY2025)
9 Margin & Profitability Trends (FY2021–FY2025)
10 Valuation Multiples — 5-Year History
Multiple FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 (Current)
P/E (Trailing)74.2x67.2x39.7x86.3x92.6x
EV/EBITDA23.9x13.4x20.1x37.6x55.8x
P/S1.78x0.90x2.66x5.34x11.86x
P/B6.3x3.6x9.1x17.6x30.6x
P/FCF70.3xn/m23.8x37.7x64.0x
EV/Revenue2.31x1.45x3.00x5.60x12.02x
Net Debt/EBITDA5.54x5.02x2.28x1.75x0.76x
11 Efficiency & Returns
Metric FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025
Return on Equity (ROE)8.4%5.3%22.8%20.4%33.8%
Return on Assets (ROA)1.7%1.1%5.8%5.4%10.9%
Return on Invested Capital3.8%1.9%13.6%14.6%18.5%
Asset Turnover0.72x0.80x0.86x0.88x0.84x
Inventory Turnover5.87x5.22x5.25x4.23x4.61x
DSO (days)112d121d116d108d111d
Interest Coverage2.97x1.51x4.14x9.17x22.0x
FCF Conversion (FCF/Net Inc)105%n/m166%229%142%
12 Consensus Analyst Estimates & Price Target Summary
Metric FY2025A FY2027E FY2028E FY2030E
Revenue (avg)$10.23B$17.64B$21.26B$26.85B
Revenue (low)$16.99B$21.17B$25.73B
Revenue (high)$18.35B$21.36B$29.34B
EBITDA (avg)$2.21B$2.54B$3.06B$3.86B
EPS (avg, diluted)$3.41A$8.75$11.07$14.92
EPS (low)$7.12$9.86$14.11
EPS (high)$9.51$12.33$16.72
Fwd P/E (at $315.71)92.6x (ttm)36.1x28.5x21.2x
Implied Rev CAGR+31% ('25→'27)+20% ('27→'28)+12% ('28→'30)
# Analysts (Rev)19189
Last-Month PT Avg
$408.57
7 analysts
Last-Quarter PT Avg
$374.53
15 analysts
Last-Year PT Avg
$264.35
46 analysts
13 Share Count & Dilution (FY2021–FY2025)

FY2024 reflects ~$600M share repurchase program. Diluted share count slightly elevated by stock options outstanding. SBC totaling $46M in FY25 is modest (<0.5% of revenue).

14 Insider Activity (Last 60 Days)
Filing Date Insider Role Type Shares Price A/D
2026-05-06 Armul Scott Chief Product & Tech Officer F-InKind 511 $330.97 D
2026-05-06 Ryan Paul President, EMEA F-InKind 735 $330.97 D
2026-05-06 Karlborg Anders EVP, Logistics & OpEx F-InKind 144 $330.97 D
2026-05-06 He Ying Frieda Chief Procurement Officer A-Award 3,941 $341.02 A
2026-03-10 Louie Matthew Director A-Award 5,578 $241.78 A
2026-03-10 Karlborg Anders EVP, Logistics & OpEx A-Award 7,415 $241.78 A

F-InKind transactions are tax withholding events on RSU vesting — not discretionary sales. No open-market sales detected in the 60-day window. Option grants in March reflect normal annual compensation cycle.

15 Bull Case

AI capex supercycle extends through 2028+. Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) have publicly committed to $300B+ in 2026 capex alone. If data-center power density continues to scale (GB200 NVL72 racks at 120 kW; future Rubin Ultra at 200 kW+), Vertiv's high-density cooling and power products are on every BOM with no credible substitute. Backlog of $12.45B provides exceptional revenue visibility.

Margin path to 27%+ EBITDA by 2030. Management's 2030 financial framework implies EBITDA margins of 27%+ on revenues approaching $20–25B. If volume leverage, services mix (higher-margin recurring), and pricing power on custom liquid-cooling systems compound as expected, $8–9 EPS by 2027 is achievable — implying <40x on near-term earnings at the current price.

International acceleration + new geographies. EMEA and APAC hyperscaler build-outs (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Southeast Asia) are in early innings. VRT's Q1 2026 Americas grew 53% YoY; international is catching up. Any large sovereign AI fund commitment (e.g., SoftBank/OpenAI US project, Saudi NeoM) would be incremental upside.

M&A creates liquid-cooling moat. The 2025 acquisitions of E&I Engineering (liquid cooling fab) and others deepened the liquid cooling supply chain. VRT is now able to ship complete liquid-to-liquid cooling systems in-house, closing the technology gap with niche competitors and creating a higher-margin recurring services stream.

Bear Case

Valuation is pricing perfection. At 55x EV/EBITDA and 93x trailing P/E, VRT is valued as a software-like compounder, not an industrial manufacturer. Any demand pause, execution miss, or macro shock could compress multiples rapidly given a Beta of 2.1. The stock lost 40% from peak to trough in H1 2025 on tariff fears — a reminder of how quickly sentiment can shift.

Customer concentration and hyperscaler negotiating power. A handful of hyperscalers represent the bulk of VRT's backlog. These customers are sophisticated negotiators with internal engineering teams that could over time design around some VRT components or bring more capacity in-house (e.g., custom immersion cooling). Any sign of backlog cancellation or pricing pressure would be a significant negative.

Supply chain and tariff exposure. Vertiv has meaningful manufacturing outside the US, and its Bill of Materials includes significant steel, copper, and electronic components sourced from Asia. Tariff escalation (particularly US-China trade friction) creates input cost risk. While VRT has demonstrated pricing power, a tariff-driven cost shock could squeeze margins before pricing adjustments catch up.

Competitive intensity rising. Eaton, Schneider Electric, Legrand, and emerging players (HPE, SMCI, startups in immersion cooling) are all increasing R&D and capex in liquid cooling. If VRT's technology lead narrows, pricing power erodes. Additionally, NVIDIA and hyperscalers may increasingly partner directly with Tier 2 vendors, bypassing VRT's premium positioning.

16 Key Risk Factors
Valuation / Multiple Risk
EV/EBITDA of 55x leaves no room for error. Any revision to the 2026–2028 growth narrative — whether from hyperscaler capex cuts, a macro recession, or competitive disruption — could trigger a rapid de-rating toward 25–30x, implying 40–50% downside from current levels.
AI Capex Cyclicality
Hyperscaler AI capex could decelerate if GPU ROI fails to materialize at scale or if the AI model landscape consolidates around fewer, more efficient architectures. VRT's business is deeply tied to GPU cluster density trends; a plateau in GPU adoption rates would expose the stock to earnings risk that the market has not priced.
Tariff & Supply Chain
US tariff policy on steel, copper, and electronic components from China and Mexico could increase COGS by 3–5 percentage points if not offset by pricing. VRT has demonstrated strong pricing power historically, but a rapid cost shock may take 1–2 quarters to fully pass through, compressing margins near-term.
Execution & Integration Risk
The $1.18B of acquisitions made in FY2025 (E&I Engineering and others) add integration complexity. If synergies are slower than planned or if there are manufacturing quality issues in new liquid-cooling product lines, it could delay the margin expansion story and raise investor doubt about the 2030 targets.
Customer Concentration
A significant portion of VRT's backlog is concentrated among 5–6 hyperscalers. Any single large customer pause, project delay, or shift to alternative vendors (custom immersion cooling, new entrants) could create a revenue air pocket that would surprise the market given current lofty expectations embedded in the multiple.
Beta / Market Sensitivity
With a Beta of 2.10, VRT amplifies broad market moves by roughly 2x. In a risk-off environment (rising rates, earnings recession, geopolitical shock), the stock could fall materially even if its own fundamentals remain intact. The stock's 52-week low of $105.68 vs. current $315.71 demonstrates this volatility profile concretely.
17 Recent News & Catalysts
2026-05-31
Seeking Alpha
VRT delivered 23% organic revenue growth in Q1 2026, guides 29–31% for FY2026, and boasts a $12.45B backlog — up 80% YoY. Operating margin reached 20.8% in Q1; management targets >27% by 2030.
2026-05-29
Seeking Alpha
Q1 2026 topline +30.1% YoY to $2.65B, led by 53% Americas growth. Operating leverage with higher sales and efficiency focus expected to drive margin expansion in FY26 and beyond.
2026-05-29
Seeking Alpha
Q1 2026: 83% EPS growth and 430 bps margin expansion. FY2026 guidance raised; forward thesis shifts from hypergrowth/rerating to sustained operational execution and earnings compounding.
2026-05-28
Seeking Alpha
Full-year guidance raised with expected organic growth ~30% and adjusted EPS growth of 51%. Aggressive capacity expansion and liquid-cooling acquisitions reinforce technological leadership.
2026-05-26
Zacks Investment Research
Vertiv's international growth and AI data-center wins fuel strong sales momentum. Rising competition from HPE and SMCI remains a watch item.
2026-05-21
Oppenheimer Maintains Outperform
Analyst Rating
Oppenheimer reiterated Outperform following management meetings. AI-infrastructure demand remains robust with no signs of project deferrals or cancellations in the near-term pipeline.
2026-05-20
TD Cowen & Barclays Reiterate Buy / Overweight
Analyst Ratings
Multiple Wall Street houses maintained bullish ratings following Q1 earnings. Barclays, previously Equal Weight, upgraded to Overweight in January 2026, citing margin expansion durability.
2026-05-29
Benzinga
Growing market narrative that the "second wave" of AI investing — pick-and-shovel infrastructure plays like VRT — may outperform as NVIDIA saturation sets in.
2026-05-06
New CPO He Ying Frieda Joins, Receives 3,941 Option Award
SEC Form 4
New Chief Procurement Officer joined with options at $341.02. March annual RSU awards distributed to CEO Albertazzi (11 shares dividend reinvestment) and broader leadership team — no open-market selling activity detected.
2026-05-28
Motley Fool
Booming AI infrastructure spending singled out as a powerful tailwind. VRT highlighted as a long-term hold among picks benefiting from the AI build-out supercycle.
18 12-Month Scenario Analysis

Scenarios framed on forward P/E and EV/EBITDA applied to FY2027 consensus estimates (EPS $8.75, EBITDA $2.54B). VRT is a high-beta (2.10) cyclical-growth industrial; the data-center capex cycle is the primary swing factor, not near-term earnings. Bull and bear scenarios reflect multiple expansion / compression more than EPS revision.

Bull Case
$470
+49% from current
Multiple: 54x Fwd P/E on FY27E EPS of $8.75
EV/EBITDA: ~28x on $2.54B FY27E EBITDA (inline with current FY25 multiple at lower EBITDA)
Catalyst: Hyperscaler capex accelerates; VRT raises FY2026 guidance above consensus; liquid-cooling wins at sovereign AI funds; margin trajectory beats 27% target
Implied PT: Near last-month analyst average of $408; re-rating requires sustained backlog growth and margin execution
Base Case
$370
+17% from current
Multiple: 42x Fwd P/E on FY27E EPS of $8.75
EV/EBITDA: ~22x on $2.54B FY27E EBITDA — modest de-rating as growth normalizes from hypergrowth toward 20%+ range
Catalyst: VRT delivers on FY2026 guidance of 29–31% organic growth; margins progress toward 23–24% EBITDA; backlog remains stable at $12B+; no material hyperscaler demand disruption
Implied PT: Aligns with last-quarter analyst consensus of $374.53 — market prices in continued execution without further re-rating
Bear Case
$195
-38% from current
Multiple: 25x Fwd P/E on FY27E EPS of $7.80 (downward revision scenario)
EV/EBITDA: ~15x on downward-revised EBITDA of ~$2.1B — compression to industrial peer multiples if growth decelerates sharply
Catalyst: Hyperscaler capex pause or significant revision; tariff-driven COGS spike squeezes margins; backlog cancellations emerge; macro recession compresses AI spending timelines
Historical reference: Stock bottomed near $105 in early 2025 on tariff shock — the 2.10 Beta means broad market corrections amplify VRT downside disproportionately

This report was generated using FMP financial data as of 2026-06-01. This is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.